Locking in 3 Plays

YTD : 30-22-1, +6.65 UN (10-0 Last Week)

Coming off a 10-0 week and looking to keep stacking after a rocky start to the season. Locking in 3 plays now before these lines move.

Friday / 8:00 / ESPN 2 | Virginia (2-1) @ Boise St. (2-1) | Boise St. -13, O/U 51

Look the blue turf is not the huge advantage it used to be for Boise. They are now 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 on the blue. I don’t like what they have done on the offensive side of the ball this year, although they will have QB Brett Rypien back for this one after missing a game and a half. Virginia has transformed into a high powered passing attack this year under Bronco Mendenhall with QB Kurt Benkert throwing for about 325 per game on 66% passing. They also have three talented receivers with over 200 yards a piece after 3 games and they could bomb away on an inexperienced Boise secondary. I like this one to stay close throughout and will gladly take almost 2 TD’s with this Virginia team.

BET | Virginia +13 | 2 UN

Friday / 10:30 / FS 1 | #23 Utah (3-0) @ Arizona (2-1) | Utah -3.5, O/U 56.5

Utah is another team, much like Virginia, who has uncharacteristically transitioned to a passing offense this season with Tyler Huntley at QB. This guy has been awesome to start the season with about 289 passing yards per game on 72%, while also running for 212 and 3 scores. Utah can also run the ball a little bit with Zack Moss but the real star this season has been the Oregon WR dismissal Darren Carrington who already has 26 catches for 409 yards and 4 scores. This is a dangerous Utes offense that will be going up against a much improved Arizona defense, although they have been largely untested thus far with Northern Arizona, Houston and UTEP. Brandon Dawkins has become the new star at QB for Arizona with 6 total TD’s last week against UTEP but it has been mostly with his legs, as still has a long way to go as a passer and we saw how well he was contained when they played Houston in week 2. I do not trust this Dick Rod offense against sound defensive teams, as they were held to only 3.9 per carry against Houston and I would expect something similar against this Utah defense. Give me Utah with a nice road win here and a comfortable cover.

BET | Utah -3.5 | 3 UN

Sat / Noon / ACC N | Kent St. (1-2) @ #19 Louisville (2-1) | Louisville -44, O/U 55.5

Louisville is obviously coming off the embarrassing home loss but that could have been the best team in the nation they just played. Louisville will undoubtedly get rolling early here against a hapless Kent St. team whose only win on the year was against FCS team Howard, in which they allowed 31 points. Kent St. has also played Clemson back in week 1 where they didn’t even come close to a cover as 38 point dogs (L 56-3). Kent St. has already lost their top QB and RB to season ending knee injuries, are without their backup QB due to injury, and are similar to the military academies in that they run the ball at a 79% clip thus far on the season. The only problem is they can’t really run the ball either. Louisville’s defense will be in the backfield from the jump and stuff this Kent St. running game early and often. Now I know Clemson went for 297 rushing yards last week but you have to consider the competition and despite the 297 allowed, Louisville still managed 4 sacks and 5 tfl’s. When you look at the other 2 games this year for Louisville’s rushing defense, they allowed 21 carries for 51 yards in the opener against Purdue (2.4 avg) and 23 carries for only 17 yards against North Carolina (0.7 avg). That’s a combined 44 carries for 68 yards (1.5 avg) against two power 5 teams! This is Kent St., who cannot throw the ball a lick, are on a 3rd string QB, George Bollas, and you know Louisville’s D will be ready to tee off after getting burned last week. Louisville has 10 sacks and 18 tackles for loss in 3 games against very solid power 5 competition so you can only imagine how many tfl’s they come up with in this one (I’m predicting 11-12). Just to tack on a little more here, Kent St’s starting QB who was lost for the year was their leading rusher by far putting up 207 rush yards on the year with the next closest having 86 yards on the season. I don’t see how Kent St. moves the ball at all in this game and I would not be surprised if they don’t make it to 100 total yards. That being said, Louisville may only need to get to 50 in this one to even cover the line and I am expecting them to approach 65-70 here so that is the only reason I would even consider a line this big. I am absolutely kicking myself for not getting this line earlier as it opened at 39.5 and has already moved 5.5 points but that is why I’m locking this in now before it gets to 50 by Saturday morning. Bet it now folks!

BET | Louisville -44 | 3 UN


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s