Midweek EPL Means It’s Go Time




12.12 EPL

12.12 EPL F

A little quickie here so we can talk through the games and who I like from each.  As ALWAYS, team news dictates all.  Check back this afternoon for updates.  There are always surprises.

Burnley v Stoke City 

Burnley are at home and a brick wall at the back.  They’ve conceded 3 total goals over their last 7 games.  That’s wild.  They’ve also held their place in the top half of the table.  This team is for real.  I don’t know if they’ll make it to Europe but they are a top half team.

Stoke, on the other hand, are fucking awful.  They’ve given up 16 goals in their last 6 games.  They simply can’t get a result against any decent teams.  They did beat Swansea but, like, it’s Swansea.

As I told you at the weekend, with Brady out it was time for Gudmundsson to pick up the slack. He did just that with a 22 point performance picking up an assist in the process.   Scott Arfield took his goal well but that’s a bit flukie.  He’s playing in place of Brady so maybe there is more of this to come. I like his spot here again on Tuesday.   I also like Chris Wood from the Burnley side.  He’s gone for double digits in 2 of the last 3 at under $7k.

From the Stoke side there isn’t a ton to like due to the strength of Burnley.  As always, Shaqiri is heavily involved in all things moving forward.  For those who didn’t watch the game this weekend, he had a 1 on 1 with the keeper where he should have scored but it was on his right foot which is basically just for standing on.  At his price it’s hard to justify but we don’t have a ton of players with ceilings like his.

I don’t like anyone else going forward against this back line.  Diouf is OK. I’m not playing him.  Kurt Zouma really impressed from an ability standpoint but can he really produce from a fantasy perspective?

I don’t like a ton in this game but Stoke have been trash at the back.

Plays:  Gudmundsson ($8.1k), Wood ($6.5k), Pope ($5,200), Shaqiri ($9,300), Zouma ($3,900)

Crystal Palace v Watford

For as bad as Crystal Palace are, and a quick reminder they are sitting at the bottom of the table, they’ve picked up 7 of their 11 points in the last 5 games.  They were also an atrocious missed penalty by Benteke away from 3 points v Bournemouth.  Their 1 win was over the shitty Stoke team we just talked about.

Watford have had a tough 3 game run against top half opponents of Burnley, Tottenham and Manchester United.  Just before that they pounded Newcastle 3-0.  They also just played 50 minutes with 10 men at the weekend.  Maybe some tired legs?

With a total of 2.5 goals and some juice (-120) on the over, this could be a good game to attack with everyone rostering Chelsea players.  Interestingly enough, Crystal Palace have scored 2 goals in EACH of their last 5 home games. They’ve also conceded 8 goals….

I see both teams scoring so let’s figure out where to go.  Absolutely NO ONE is going to roster Benteke.  He took one of the worst penalties I’ve ever seen with everything on the line.  93rd minute.  Tied 2-2.  Fucking look at this…

Guess what, I’m doing it.  NOW, this is assuming Hodgson goes back to the well and supports his big man.  They are unbeaten in the last 3 in which Benteke has completed the full 90.  He also has 9 shots with 3 on goal in his last 2 games.  He’s doing it.  He’s scoring boys! At $6,200, we need a goal with 2 SOG to get to 2X.

Zaha will be popular but at $9,400 he’s getting a little pricey.  That pricing says a bit about the lack of options on a small slate.  I like pairing the 2 if you want to go there.

Milivojevic ($3,700) is a good salary saver and should be back on penalty duty.  I really like the he got off a season high 4 shots last game.  You can’t expect a goal but know that it’s a possibility with the form Zaha is in and possibility of converting one from the spot.

Richarlison’s price is getting tough to justify.  He absolutely has the ability to score but with Deeney back in the first 11 he has been pushed further away from the goal.  Deeney is a bit of a sneaky play knowing full well he’s a fat shit who doesn’t do a ton.  He is on penalty duty in the off chance they get one.  If Deeney doesn’t get the nod, maybe you can go there with Richarlison.

I like Doucoure at his price.  $4,600 with goal upside is a decent place to go.  If Cabaye is healthy and starting you can go there.  Janmaat is a good option with Zeegelaar out from his red card.  Fosu-Mensah is a salary saver but has little upside.

Holebas is a great option but at $6,300, the upside is limited.

Plays: Benteke ($6,200), Zaha ($9,400),  Doucoure ($4,600), Janmaat ($4,500), Milivojevic ($3,700)

Huddersfield v Chelsea

Maybe the most glaring miss for me on the weekend was the performance of Mounie for Huddersfield.  He wasn’t spectacular but he did score twice and you needed to roster him to hit big on GPPs.  He’s been a nothing player all year and scored with his dick (literally – watch the replay) and on a weak header outside of the six yard box.  I’m not going to be chasing the points here, even at his low price of $5,300, on my main lineup.  However, getting a starting forward, with confidence, at under $6k is worth a shot on at least 1 of my teams.

Prior to the win over Brighton, Huddersfield were getting smashed.  Losing by a combined 13-1 v Arsenal, Everton, Man City and Bournemouth, they are likely heading back to their losing ways against Chelsea who will be looking to bounce back from a shit performance v West Ham.  Chelsea had 69% of the possession and outshot West Ham 19-5 yet still came away without a point.  Yikes!

As the biggest favorite on the board Chelsea will be very popular.  This will come down to the team news for me.  The big news is no Morata.  I was wondering if this would happen and Conte confirmed it early which is a bit disappointing as I was hoping to avoid the giant red O next to his name. With this news, Hazard ($11,700) becomes the major favorite for 50%+ ownership and for good reason.  As the #9 he’s been extremely dangerous and effective.  Just 3 games ago he put up 41 v Newcastle in a 3-0 win.

I’ll have a few teams without Hazard but fade at your own risk.  Realistically I see this as a 2-0 win for Chelsea so who can we play?  Willian is interesting.  When he gets the start he usually finds double digit points.

I really like this spot for Zappacosta.  He’s been in good form and consistently gets forward to join the attack.  To have a wingback go 4 straight games with a shot on goal with a combined 27 crosses is a YES PLEASE type of play.  At $5,900 that’s very palatable.

You can go Fabregas here as well.  Chelsea should have most of the ball.  Cesc is much better influencing the game when his team has most of the ball.  He could pop up with an assist.

Courtois has the win and clean sheet 10 pt bonus dead in his sights but will he make many saves?  I might prefer Nick Pope (Burnley) at $800 savings.

Van La Parra is back in the mix after his red card suspension.  He adds a little spice to the Huddersfield attack and should be fresh.  Even in a 0-4 loss to Bournemouth he still put up 18 DK points and at only ($4,500) could be a nice salary saver.

Last, Ngolo Kante isn’t a player who is going to get you 20 points but he’s a great salary saver and could go 2x.  If you expect Chelsea to have 15-20 shots and 65%+ possession like I do, you’re going to have to intercept the ball and win a bunch of tackles.  That is his forte.  He’s gone for 8, 7 and 7 in 3 of his last 4.

Plays: Hazard ($11,700), Willian ($8,500), Zapacosta ($5,900), Courois ($6,000), Fabregas ($7,800), Mounie ($5,300), Mooy ($6,200), Kante ($3,900)

Let’s get that money

aziz money gif



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