HUMP DAY EPL! LET’S RIDE!!!

UPDATES!  

CITY – NO SANE.  

SOUTHAMPTON – CHARLIE AUSTIN STARTS AND IS DECENT VALUE AT $6.3K

UNITED – SHAW STARTS.  MOVING HIM IN TO SOME LINEUPS WITH LUKAKU. 

LIVERPOOL – BIG 4 UP FRONT WITH FIRMINO, COUTINHO, SALAH AND MANE.  LEANING TOWARDS COUTINHO AND MANE.  SALAH HAS A BIT OF A HAMMY TWINGE BUT STARTS.

ARSENAL – GIROUD STARTS.  WILSHERE STARTS.

I KEEP FINDING MYSELF ROSTERING KANE.  DON’T LOVE IT BECAUSE OF THE PRICE BUT LIKE THE WAY THE TEAM IS SET UP. 

GOOD LUCK!

Screen Shot 2017-12-12 at 10.01.45 PMScreen Shot 2017-12-12 at 10.01.59 PM

Sup?!  Full disclosure, I’m going to be playing with the format to find the best way to give you my thoughts on the games and who I think the best plays are.  There are some great things on the horizon so any feedback is welcome.  @dukeoesports is my handle on twitter.  Don’t be shy.

Fun 7 game midweek slate here.  Tottenham, Manchester United and Liverpool are at home and massive favorites.  Premier League pretty boys City are away, but at Swansea.  There are GOALS GALORE here so we need to be smart with how we use our cash.  I think the popular build will be pay up at stars and scrubs.

Another build is to pick a game you think will blow out and take the 2-3 likeliest scorers. (Aguero/Sterling/Sane….Firmino/Salah/Mane….Kane/Eriksen/Son or Alli)  All 3 will leave you with little to no salary left but if they they hit for 3 goals and an assist or 2 who cares, right?  To win a GPP today you need to hit the nuts from multiple games, IMO.  I think I might be spreading around my ownership.

I’m kind of OK with a stars and scrubs type of lineup in cash.  GPPs might require us to get a bit creative.  Which GK gets a clean sheet, win and a few saves?

Forward:

Cash:  Kane, Aguero, Salah, Sterling

GPP:  Lukaku, Lacazette, Marital, Rashford, Bony

Taking the best player from the biggest favorites is always a good way to start a team.  Kane is extremely expensive but coming off a 31 point performance where he scored 2 goals on 7 shots.  Realistically he could have scored 5 goals.

Aguero is the lead dog on a team that has scored the most goals this season.  Plug and play.  Sterling falls in the same boat because of his form.  Swansea have been a bit stingy at the back so I don’t know that this game gets to 4-0 or 5-0 territory.

Salah is literally untouchable right now but with Coutinho back, Liverpool are spreading the love around.  An honorable mention goes out to Firmino who seems to be in the form of his life.

From a GPP perspective, I’m trying to find goals from lower cost players.  Lukaku is too fucking good to be as bad as he is right now.  Let that sink in for a minute.  He’s been a bit unlucky but also a bit wasteful.  Bournemouth at home is a get right game and I think he does with 2 goals.  At $3k less than Kane, he offers a bit of value.

Bony has scored in 2 straight games and while he’s up against City, at $4,500 we can plug him in and pray. He also has a weird knack for scoring against his former employers.  No Duke guarantees here but keep him in mind on a team or two.

Midfield: 

Cash: De Bruyne, Coutinho, Sanchez

GPP: Rooney, Eriksen, Lamela, Fernandinho, Mane, Sane, Firmino

I can put my money behind the 3 listed in cash.  All perform at an insanely consistent level but all 3 are expensive, meaning we need to look elsewhere for value.

I’ll be interested to see who Klopp rolls out this afternoon.  He could rest Coutinho which would upgrade both Salah and Firmino.

Sane is definitely a GPP play for me. He hasn’t been killing it like KDB has.  KDB is very playable in both formats.  Again, I don’t know that City blows them out but will have 75% of the ball.  That is a lot of opportunity for points.

Newcastle have given up 15 goals over the last 5 games and Everton have been playing much better.  Rooney has been a part of the resurgence and I don’t mind you going there in GPPs.  He’s also quite a bit cheaper than a few options listed above.

Eriksen seems to be back and Tottenham should get the result at home.  He only hits value in blow outs and this could be a good spot.  If Lamela starts, I like his spot at relatively low ownership. GPP only because we haven’t seen him play the full 90 since his injury.

Defender:

Cash:  Trippier/Aurier, Young, Kolasinac, Otamendi

GPP: Valencia, Walker, Smalling, Rose/Davies, Gomez, Delph, Bong

Ashley Young has been on fire of late.  Bournemouth can play an expansive brand of soccer at times but are a bit more pragmatic against the big boys.  Young should have opportunity to get forward quite a bit.

Tottenham will have Brighton pinned back for most of the game.  I’m hoping Aurier starts for the salary savings but I’m going to try to get a Tot RB in my main lineup.

Otamendi has been playing his best soccer in the last month.  We can’t bank on a goal, as he’s done the last 2, but a clean sheet bonus with several tackles and interceptions isn’t unreasonable.   NOTE: Yellow card risk is high.  Even a red wouldn’t completely shock me as he’s that kind of player and Bony is a handful up top if he starts.

If you want to get a bit funky at the back you can look at lower priced options like Smalling who gets forward for set pieces or Gomez in a game Liverpool should win by multiple goals.

Bong has gone for 2x in 3 of his last 4.  He lacks major upside but at $3k he could be one to slide in for salary relief.

Goalkeeper:

Cash: Ederson, Lloris, DeGea, Mignolet

GPP: Forster, Pickford, Fabianski, Cech

This is relatively straight forward.  There are 3 massive home favorites on the board plus City away.  All 4 are capable of clean sheets wins. Of the 4 listed, I would prefer DeGea.  He has 3-5 save upside and could get the result.

Mignolet is probably the safest play on the board.  West Brom are TRASH going forward.

Cech is in an interesting spot here.  West Ham just beat Chelsea and should be flying high but will only have about 35% of the ball.  Will he have many opportunities for saves?  If he does, will he make them?  I don’t like this spot for Arsenal but they are favorites on the road and I think he’ll be low owned.

If you think City doesn’t run away with the game Fabianski is in a good spot.  If Clement decides to bunker it could lead to 5-10 shots from outside the box.  Man City literally have 20+ shot upside in this game so in theory, Fabianksi could make 8-10 saves and give up 2 goals and still hit value.  Just a thought but know there is risk there.

 

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