Draft Kings EPL 12/16 Pick Em Preview W/ Your Boy DUKE!

9:04:  EARLY TEAM NEWS.  NO ZAPPACOSTA. ALONSO AND MOSES START AT WING BACK FOR CHELSEA.  HAZARD IN THE #9 ROLE AGAIN.  WILLIAN STARTS!

NEWCASTLE ARE UNCHANGED AT THE BACK.  GREAT NEWS FOR ARSENAL!

9:30:  NO MAJOR SURPRISES WITH THE TEAM NEWS.  LACAZETTE STARTS UP FRONT FOR ARSENAL.  

I DON’T HATE THE HAZARD/WILLIAN STACK BUT THAT EATS A LOT OF SALARY.  I DON’T LIKE THAT ALONSO IS LISTED AS A MIDFIELDER IN CLASSIC MODE. THAT LOWERS HIS VALUE FOR ME.

GOT A GOOD FEELING ABOUT RICHARLISON TODAY! GOAL

What up kids?!  I haven’t won a GPP in 3 slates so we are officially due.  As always, these are my opinions.  I’m going to be leaning towards the first or second picks in each tier.  Unlike other sports, we don’t HAVE to be contrarian, we have to be right.  Being right and contrarian wins us ALL the money.

Check back tomorrow morning for updates after lineups are released.  We are focusing on the PICK EM style for this blog but this can translate over to the CLASSIC mode.

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The model of consistency is Alexi Sanchez.  The dude at his worst gets you 10 points and at his best can get to the high 20’s.  He’s absolutely in play here.

The big decision we have to make is to attacked the MC/Tottenham game or look more towards Arsenal/Chelsea…

I see goals in the City/Tot game.  I don’t know how many.  I would lean towards the under of 3.5 goals.  I wouldn’t be surprised at a 2-0 scoreline for City.  Arsenal almost certainly get a win and Newcastle have been LEAKING goals at the back.  12 in the last 5 to be exact. Southampton haven’t been much better giving up 9 over the last 5, including a 4-1 beating by Leicester at midweek.

Morata could be back but maybe not 100%.  Hazard hasn’t had a ceiling game in a while but this could be a get right game.

KDB and Aguero are obviously studs but I’d prefer KDB in this matchup.  #1 – even with the injuries at the back for Tottenham, they are still a solid group.  This is going to be a battle and leads itself to more of a game for the middies.  KDB might have 4 shots and 7 crosses in this game.  My guess is he gets a goal and/or assist.

TIER 1: Sanchez, KDB, Hazard, Morata, Aguero

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Seeing Harry Kane in tier 2 is a massive change of pace.  We just talked about the City game a bit but I don’t hate the sport for Kane. In the classic mode, he’s at his lowest price of the season.  It’s not a gang busters spot but if Tottenham are to get a result, they need something from their big stud up top.

Richarlison picked up an assist against Palace.  That’s an encouraging sign and could kick him back into form as they face a Huddersfield team that has lost 4 of their last 5.  Huddersfield have been terrible against top half teams and even though Watford is just that, in the loosest sense of the word, we need to keep that in mind.  I can see Watford getting the win at home and Richarlison finding the score sheet.

We NEED a piece of the Arsenal game.  I don’t know if you go full stack but if you avoid Sanchez in the first tier, you need to look to either Ozil or Lacazette.  In a tier with some tough matchups, this could be a ceiling game for Lacazette.

I told you to play Willian on Wednesday and boy did it pay off with a goal and two assists.  More importantly, it should be a massive boost to his confidence.  Should Conte allow him to keep his place, I’m cool with going here.

Shaqiri is OK but I won’t have too many shares.

Sane is out of form and Sterling hasn’t been a killer in front of goal and has a tough matchup v Spurs.  I think I’m going to fade and pray with these 2 guys.

TIER 2:  Willian, Lacazette, Richarlison, Kane, Sterling

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David Silva was absolutely untouchable at midweek.  2 goals and honestly, he could have had 4.  What a master class he put on.  New game and a tougher matchup.  He’ll have to do more defending this weekend so don’t expect a repeat performance.  With his quality, he’s always in play but not at the top of my list.

Eriksen is a beta.  He’s been a bit better but I don’t see him grabbing this game by the scruff of the neck and that’s what is needed here.  I don’t know that he’ll make my main lineup.

Mesut Ozil could be a good play here. Arsenal will have the majority of the ball but my fear is that Newcastle could bunker here and make it hard for him to play between the midfield and defense where he really shines. I’m not going all in for sure but I’ll have shares.

Gudmundsson is consistent and even though Burnley are on the road, it’s against trash Brighton.  If I go risky elsewhere, I’ll plug him in here.  He’s a good cash game play.

Pedro scored a goal midweek but I can see him being squeezed out with Morata coming back.

Big beaked Giroud sucks.  Back to the bench for him.

Gabby Jesus just hasn’t had it the last month and I don’t think it starts here.

TIER 3: D Silva, Gudmundsson, Ozil, Eriksen, Fabregas

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NO AARON RAMSEY.  He’s out for a bit.  It’s quite odd they throw injured players in like this.

This tier stinks.  Let’s focus on who you can play.

Alonso is in play.  Chelsea will get the result and Southampton look lost.  He’ll get forward and launch the ball in the box a ton.  He could pop up with the assist and could score a goal.

Son has scored 4 games in a row!  That’s huge but doesn’t quite tell the whole story.  He scored VERY late mid week and didn’t do a ton else.  He’s had only 2 duds in his last 9 games.  In the others he’s gone for 16, 30, 21, 13, 13, 20 and 18.

Alli does tend to get up for big games.  He’s a risk for a yellow and even a red card so we need to make sure we can overcome these issues.  Ehhhh

Lanzini is the last interesting player in the tier.  Stoke are reiling and West Ham are a bit more stabilized under Moyes.  They aren’t exactly flying forward but Lanzini can unlock a defense.  I’m kind of reaching here to be honest but I’m probably just going Alonso and Son and calling it a day.

TIER 4: Alonso, Son, Mooy, Alli, Lanzini

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The Little Pea is back.  Chicharito is getting back to health.  He’s a flyer type of play that could take advantage of a shit Stoke team.

Choupo-Moting was dropped from the team midweek but then came on and had 2 shots on goal in 6 minutes.  It seems like he could get a start.

Matt Ritchie is on all set piece duty but how much of the ball with Newcastle have?  I can literally see them having like 2-4 shots the entire game.

Antonio is a solid play.  Again, we’re more so attacking Stoke than trusting the players themselves.

The two plays I like are Zappacosta and Jack Wilshere. Speaking of welcome back…

Look, you probably aren’t going to win GPPs if you roster both Chelsea outside backs but I might be going there on one team.  I like the spot and game script for both to get forward.  Zappacosta, when he starts, produces.

Jack Wilshere is officially back and adds an interesting element to the midfield.  Again, we want exposure to this game and I’m probably taking 2 players.  Choose wisely.

TIER 5: Zappacosta, Wilshere, Antonio, Ritchie, Chicharito, Wood, Choupo-Moting

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Yikes….

Trippier has made me a lot of money and he might be the play, even though they will have less of the ball than usual.

Tadic has found his form a bit but face a TOUGH Chelsea defense.

Charlie Austin missed an absolute sitter and cost me a couple hundred dollars this week.  Welcome to my personal shit list.  In all seriousness, we can’t let shit like that change our opinions.  Each game is independent.  The impact on his confidence is more of interest to me.

Lamela has been much better but I don’t know that 1) He’ll start and 2) Have the same impact on the game as his last 2.

Azpilacueta has lost a bit of his impact and I probably won’t be going there.

Kolasinic is quality and if he starts, should get a clean sheet bonus and pick up points elsewhere.  Arsenal aren’t a team that whip a billion balls into the box but the possession allows Kolasinic get forward and even get on the end of threw balls.

Deeney is on PK duty and doesn’t do a ton else.  I do think Watford score a couple goals so he along with Richarlison are OK plays.

TIER 6:  Kolasinic, Trippier, Tadic, Arnautovic, Mounie, Deeney

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