Duke’s EPL Preview 1/20 – Draft Kings

UPDATES: 

NO WELBECK, NO LOLLEY.  VALUE AT F SPOT WILL NEED TO COME FROM DIOUF AT $5,600 OR VARDY AT $6,900 FOR GPPs

EVERTON ARE GOING WITH 4 ATTACKING PLAYERS:  WALCOTT, VLASIC, TOSUN AND SIGURDSSON.  OF THE 4, ONLY VLASIC IS IN PLAY FOR ME BUT IT WOULD TAKE 9-10 LINEUPS TO GET THERE.

CHARLIE ADAM SHOULD BE ON SET PIECE DUTY FOR STOKE, WHO ARE AT HOME.  AT $4,800 YOU COULD GO THERE. 

ALEX PRITCHARD GETS THE ODD START IN THE PREMIER LEAGUE FOR HUDDERSFIELD AT $5,200.  WOULDN’T HATE THE PLAY BUT YOU HAVE OTHER OPTIONS IN THAT RANGE. 

ARNAUTOVIC STARTS AT THE 9.  IF YOU FADE CITY (AND YOU CAN IF YOU MAKE 3-5 TEAMS) THEN I WOULD UNDERSTAND YOU GOING HERE.  AGAIN, I’M FADING HIM ON MY MAIN LINEUP.

NOTE FOR MANCHESTER UNITED – NO SHAW.  YOUNG AND VALENCIA START.  BOTH ARE IN PLAY.  YOUNG IS MUCH BETTER.

GOOD LUCK!!

Travel day today so everyone gets a taste nice and early.  First, a quick recap of last week.  The article smashed and hopefully you did as well.  We recommended goalscorers Arnautovic, Sako, Kane x2 and Doucoure.  Not only that but we FADED absolute lineup killers in Morata and Alonso.

As always, we can have the right players but construct the wrong roster.  IT HAPPENS!!  Manage your bankroll and know that you will win long term with me.  Let’s get into this week with a monster 7 game slate.  As always, VEGAS BABY.

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A couple of thoughts on a few games:

City are going to be very popular.  I think my strategy will be to take 2 of the 4 attacking players. If I’m making 3 GPP teams, one will probably fade City and the other 2 will have 2+ City players.

Let’s not freak out about the new additions to Everton.  Walcott improves the Everton attack but there are too many unknowns for me to go there right away.  I think this will help a Sigurdsson or even a Rooney in the long run but for now, let’s avoid; especially against West Brom with the lowest total on the board.

Arsenal are leaky at the back and have a boatload of drama around Sanchez and Ozil.  Second biggest favorite on the board but Palace are much improved and I don’t love this spot for the Gunners.

Bournemouth are hot.  Get into it.

Stoke give up a billion goals.  Huddersfield can’t score.  Which one gives out first?

Leicester/Watford will be a sneaky game to attack in GPPs.

IN FORM TEAMS:  Last 5 Games

Manchester City – 10 pts (Lost last game!)

Manchester United/Bournemouth/West Ham – 9 pts

Watford/West Brom/Newcastle – 8 pts

OUT OF FORM TEAMS: Last 5 Games

Everton – 1 pt

Burnley – 2 pts

Arsenal – 3 pts

Stoke City – 4 pts

MOST GOALS SCORED:  Last 5 Games

 

West Ham – 12 goals

Manchester City – 11 goals

Arsenal – 10 goals

Manchester United – 9 goals

Bournemouth – 9 goals

MOST GOALS CONCEDED: Last 5 games

Stoke City – 11 goals

Bournemouth – 11 goals

Arsenal – 10 goals

Watford – 9 goals

Huddersfield – 9 goals

West Ham – 9 goals

Forwards:

Aguero – ($10.6k) – I mentioned up top you need some City.  Biggest fav with the highest total.  If we are trying to figure out not only who will produce but also who, if we fade and they go off we are done, you have to start with Aguero.  His ceiling is the roof – Michael Jordan.  Multi-goal upside and I’ll have a TON of Kun

Sterling – ($9.9k) – This is my second favorite GPP play from City.  If I’m playing cash I’d rather try to squeeze in DeBruyne/Aguero which I think is possible without totally punting everything.

Welbeck – ($6.2k) – GPP only.  He is VERY goal dependent but if we want a piece of the Arsenal team, I’d rather play him than Lacazette and save the $1.6k.  Welbeck isn’t a clinical finisher.  He’ll need multiple chances to bury one.  It could happen.

Lolley – ($3.8k) – Salary savor special.  He popped up with a beautiful goal last weekend but that’s not why I will have shares of Lolley.  As I mentioned above, Stoke are horrendous at the back.  Someone is going to bury one.  If Lolley starts, he needs 7 points to hit value.  Give me a SOG, 2 other shots, 3 crosses and a FD.  Value..

Fade:

Arnautovic – ($8.4k) – Once again, our balls are on the table.  NO ONE is hotter than Marco right now but his pricing is getting a little ridiculous.  He’s very much a confidence player so I can’t blame someone for going there but I just don’t think my construction will have me landing on him.

Midfield:

DeBruyne – ($10.8k) – CASH game staple.  Set pieces, assists, shots with goal upside.  His floor is high and he’s the most expensive player on the slate for a reason.

Mahrez – ($9.1k) – If we think the Leicester/Watford game could shoot out then we need a piece.  I don’t love either Okazaki or Vardy but both can finish when it’s put on a plate.  The provider is usually Mahrez.  I made a GPP team with Mahrez/Aguero/Sterling.  I don’t hate it to be honest but that will be my 9th or 10th lineup.

Pereya – ($3k) – Min price set piece taker?? Sign me up.  Cleverly is out.  Holebas seems to be on the manager’s bad side.  If he sits, it should be all Pereya.  Unbelievable salary saver with potential assist upside.

Sako – ($4.9k) – As long as Townsend is out, I’ll continue to go there.  He was brilliant last week and his pricing went down.  Likely due to the fact that they will have less of the ball, I still see upside and Sako hitting value.

Pogba – ($8.3k) – I think this will be a contrarian play.  More people will spend the extra $300 and go up to Arnautovic.  I can see the thinking but look up…we are fading Marko.  Pogba’s floor is higher and if you happen to spend down at one F spot you can go here.  Salary will make it tough otherwise.

Ibe – ($6.2k) – Bournemouth are hot!  Can pop up on corners.  He’s been very active in the final third.  I would prefer him to say, Ryan Frazier from the same team.

Fade

Shaqiri – ($7.8k) – Salary just doesn’t quite make sense with roster construction.  I’d rather pay up or down here.  Stoke desperately need a front man who isn’t 37 years old.

Ritchie – ($5.6k) – Don’t play him.  Just don’t.  You shouldn’t want to, but don’t.

Defenders:

Young/Shaw – ($6.2k/$5.7k) – Recommending the 2 highest priced defenders isn’t exactly rocket science but we have history to go off of.  On 12/26 United played Burnley and Shaw put up 18.8 pts.  His 6 shots are a bit unrealistic but even you chop that down to a third he’s still hitting value.  In the same game, Young put up 22 pts.  Why is this?  Burnley basically have a funnel defense.  Sean Dyche forces superior teams to beat them from the outside in.  Using both probably eats too much salary but picking one is the optimal play.

Janmaat – ($4.6k) –  I was glad to see his price not rise too much.  He’s put up 3 solid games in a row and as long as he’s getting a run, I’m willing to go there.  This game should be up and down.  One thing to consider, presumably Albrighton will be lined up on his side of the field and unfortunately that fucker runs up and down all day long.  Janmaat won’t have a free run forward but I still like the play.

Zeegelar – ($3.6k) – You know who doesn’t run all day?  Mahrez.  Zeegelar is Pereya’s only competition for set pieces.  Cheap points there would go a long way.

Cresswell – ($4.6k) – He’s on corner duty and will take the odd set piece.  Add that to 133 crosses on the season and we have a decent floor to go on.

Keeper:

Throw a dart, as always.  Really the strategy is to build a lineup you love and see what’s left.  You can tweak slightly at that point but the most variance occurs here.

If you have the money you can go Ederson but there is a real possibility that he doesn’t make a single save and gives up a goal.  Clean sheet gone with zero saves.  Yuck.

Pope – ($4k) – Is the win likely?  Not really.  Is the clean sheet likely? Don’t bank on it.  Why is this attractive?  Saves and price.  We need money and Pope allows us to spend elsewhere.  I’d rather play Pope/Shaw than Ederson/Zabaleta but that is kind of what you need to decide.

Pickford – ($5k) – The game logs will make you puke.  Kind of why I love it.  Big Sam has been backed with $ by bringing in both Tuson and Walcott.  While I don’t think they will necessarily start banging in goals, Big Sam knows he needs to straighten shit out at the back.  West Brom have only scored 5 goals from their last 5 games.  Save, clean sheet and win upside has me looking here.

Low Cost Penalty Takers: If you need to fill a $3k slot you can go there.

Milivojevic – ($3.1k)

Noble – ($3.2k)

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