Duke’s EPL Preview 2/10

UPDATES:

SWANSEA:  NO ABRAHAM.  PIVOT TO AYEW AT $5.9K IF YOU WANT TO ATTACK THIS GAME.  HE WON’T BE ON MY MAIN TEAM.

PALACE: GOING WITH THE TWIN TOWERS UP TOP OF BENTEKE AND SORLOTH.  YOU CERTAINLY CAN’T ROSTER EITHER IN CASH BUT IT DOES GIVE MORE VALUE TO TOWNSEND IMO.  

WEST HAM: MARIO AT #10 WITH ARNAUTOVIC AND ANTONIO ON EITHER SIDE.   I LIKE THE FRONT 4 FOR WEST HAM TODAY.  I’D MOVE CHICHARITO AHEAD OF AYEW

IF YOU ARE ROSTERING MAN CITY/LEICESTER PLAYER(S) MAKE SURE THEY ARE IN THE UTILITY SPOT TO GIVE YOURSELF FLEXIBILITY!!

GOOD LUCK MAFIA

Forward:

$$$- Aguero, Sterling

$$- Vardy, Choupo-Moting

$- Abraham, CHICHARITO, AYEW

Midfield:

$$$- DeBruyne, Shaqiri

$$- Deulofeo, Gudmundsson, Mario, Townsend, Doucoure

$- Narsingh, Pereyra MCARTHUR

Defender:

$$$- Bauer, Cresswell, Janmaat

$$- Zeegelaar, Byram, Naughton, ZABALETA

$- Bruno

Goalkeeper:

$$$- Butland

$$- Fabianski, Pope

$- Schmeichel

A quick recap of last week.  First, you should be analyzing your roster after the fact to see what you could/should have done differently.  Keep in mind, you can make the correct decisions and it doesn’t work out….sucks, but in the long run you’ll win.

I’ll show you two key pieces of information from the $25 double up.  This should be considered a CASH game and we are looking to target players with high floors. Generally these are players who take set pieces (corners/free kicks) with some goal upside as a bonus.  Defenders should almost always be outside backs or fullbacks.

Screen Shot 2018-02-06 at 9.40.45 PM

These are the highest owned players.  The biggest question mark for me was Stanislas.  I mentioned in my article last week that he took away from Ibe a bit but still preferred Ibe.  Knowing you likely couldn’t roster both, his ownership is surprising for me.  Other than that, no major surprises.  Cresswell takes corners, Byram was relatively inexpensive and people are figuring out that Joao Mario is a major upgrade for West Ham.  DeGea was expensive but a no brainer if you could afford him.

Screen Shot 2018-02-06 at 9.40.27 PM

These are the highest scoring players that were owned.  As you can see, Arsenal weren’t nearly as highly owned in the CASH games as they were in the GPP tourneys.  Why?  A ton of reasons.  Production is spread around by Arsenal.  They rarely have 1 or 2 players produce every game.  Free kicks are spread around.  It was the afternoon game with no roster guarantees and two new players making their home debut.  For GPPs, I’m all about it.  For cash, that is a lot of risk.  I thought Chris Brunt may be a little higher owned.  I didn’t have enough Gross but you never LIKE rostering Gross.

If you like this piece of the preview and want to see more in future previews, hit me up on twitter @DukeOESport or comment below.

Back at it again this week.  Let’s start in Vegas baby!

Screen Shot 2018-02-06 at 9.42.57 PM

Fucking Manchester City.  Combine by far the biggest favorite with a home match against Leicester and we’ll again see the ownership flock here.  The interesting part is that this game is the afternoon hammer.  Those who go elsewhere will be looking over their shoulders as they jump out to early leads.

I’ve heard one group I respect mention rostering ZERO Man City players.  COMPLETELY disagree.  You need a piece of City at home.  They are averaging 3.17 goals per home game over their last 6 games. Yes, they are expensive at the top but you don’t have to roster both DeBruyne/Aguero.  Optimal likely includes ONE of DeBruyne/Sterling/Aguero.  Highest floor = DeBruyne.  Highest ceiling = Aguero.  Oddly enough, only 2 of the last 6 home games were clean sheets.  Avoid the defenders and keeper for their price.

West Ham and Watford has shootout potential and the second highest total on a relatively small slate.  15 goals for and 15 goals against combined could lead to an interesting match up.

Brighton concede but Stoke don’t score.  

Swansea murdered their FA Cup opponent but they were 3 divisions below the Premier League.  Is it a confidence boost?  Sure.  Do we think it will translate to the EPL?  Sloooowwww down.  Narsingh looked dangerous and Abraham will get the full run.

STATS LAST 5

MOST POINTS:

Manchester City – 10

Swansea City – 8

Crystal Palace – 8

Leicester City – 8

GOALS SCORED:

Manchester City – 13

West Ham – 8

Watford – 7

Leicester City – 7

GOALS ALLOWED:

Everton – 13

Brighton – 10

Watford – 8

West Ham – 7

Crystal Palace – 7

 

Cash – I don’t know that you need more than 1 player from City, especially considering DeBruyne is $12.1k.  He has the highest floor but he needs to get an assist or goal to hit “value”, technically…  I might end up using 4 midfield eligible players between FF/MM/UTIL.

GPP –

I will have builds like:

Vardy/Abraham/Deulofeo/Mario/Bauer/Bryam/Fabianski/Sterling.

I’m not saying I’ll use that exact lineup…*wink*…but this is a way to get exposure to a couple of games I want to attack.  City can concede goals at home.  Who will score for Leicester? Vardy.  Swansea are at home and in decent form against a Burnley team out of form.  I think Abraham starts and should see 90 minutes with Bony out.  He also scored 2 goals midweek.  Confidence should be high.  Deulofeo will be chalky but he should hit value.  He’s taking some set pieces as well.  I’m just going to play Mario until he doesn’t hit value.  Bauer flies forward on the second biggest favorite on the board.  Bryam is relatively inexpensive and averaging 7.5 points over the last 2 games he’s started.  Fabianski hits for a few reason.  1) I have zero Burnley in the lineup. 2) I have Abraham scoring a goal. 3) If #1 and #2 happen I have a chance at a clean sheet, win and a few saves.  Sterling gives me a piece of the City game with multi goal upside.

Where’s the risk?  No DeBruyne, no Aguero and no Shaqiri.  That’s kind of scary but if we want to win a GPP we need to fade chalk with viable routes to a win.  We also have 2 goal dependent forwards in Vardy and Abraham.  Burnley could wake up and score a goal or 2 and now Fabianski gets you 1 point.  There are always risks in GPP lineups but if I have thought process as to why I chose my lineup and it doesn’t work out I don’t get pissed.  I analyze and try again next weekend.

And there you have it. Make sure to check back Saturday morning for updates.

Good luck and stay cashin!

 

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